By Mark P. Dangelo
With less than a 1% market share in 2010, tablet computers were a sideshow for most businesses especially when it came to housing and mortgage finance. Tablets were viewed as a specialized consumer computing devices, which would be replaced by smart phones. At least that was the thinking before May 2010.
In 2011, the number of distinct tablet computers coming to market is now over 50 from noted manufacturers including Apple, Samsung, RIM, Panasonic, LG, and Fujitsu. The unit volume for 2011 is estimated to range from 40 to 50 million or roughly 15% to 20% of all “PC” shipments worldwide. An impressive one year performance for a market thought to have been not important for enterprise solutions.
What made the difference in a short nine months? Most would point to the “Apple” phenomenon and its iPad – but the reality is more complex and opportunistic for competitors seeking a few degrees of separation. It is this division that will define market leaders in real estate, mortgage documents, LOS systems, servicing, and yes, even fraud. If we can understand the consumer and economic changes, the use of tablets and their technologies can be integrated into business model changes.
A Decade of Permanent Change Forthcoming
As laptop and desktop numbers continue to decrease across an aging domestic population (i.e., per the WPO, one in two will be over the age of 50 by 2025 – up from one in five in 2011), tablets and their unique applications represent a new delivery channel and distinction to not only identify prospects, but to retain progressive consumers and homeowners for the next decade.
As wealth concentrates and with fewer prime buyers available, the channel methods used to create volume will decline as we continue to deal with a housing supply that is between 3 and 4 years at present rates. In general, mortgages for the next decade are being forced by markets, standards, and regulations to become more commodities – than unique products within a financial services supply chain.
Additionally, as the Federal Reserve noted this last week, a decline of 1.4% in 2010 (i.e., $311 billion) in the net financial asset base for American consumers does not bode well for future activities or ability to deal with shocks[i]. This continues to be a multi-year trend downward.
Couple this with lasting mortgage lending realities as noted in the Wall Street Journal[ii], the trend is to downsize further still, and to increase productivity and efficacy. How? This will be multi-faceted and include the use of mobile interfaces, data segmentation and mining, and of course, predictive behavioral analytics.
As the aging consumer changes their minds and adjusts their actions, the lenders abilities to reach and predict a new normal are starting to yield early results. By incorporating new outreach solutions beyond basic VRU’s and call centers, lenders are focusing on the interfaces and channels growing among the most prized of homeowners (i.e., high ratings, less risks, affluent, technologically savvy). Professional investors are recognizing this and shifting their strategies for new startups or transformations to those organizations a new consumer – the problem is most firms and money are shifting into Asia[iii]. America’s fascination on copy-cat solutions has precipitated transfers that if left unchecked, will make matters worse for jobs and income levels increasing competitive needs for distinction.
Factor in that traditional wallet and paper solutions disappear to be replaced by robust smart devices by 2016 containing cash, shopper cards, identity, and history. The use of tablets represents a logical shift into the mobile consumer seeking to simply their life while promoting privacy. If you have your doubts about this radical transformation, research Starbucks new eBucks, the TSA, the 30 plus vendors offering mobile cash, electronic shopper cards, and the list goes on. It will be interesting to see how will this be captured in future credit reporting?
However, with every new channel, the practices and processes needed to ensure security, privacy, and functionality have to evolve as well. For tablets, the learning curve and optimal solutions are just beginning as a new rush for gold begins.
So What Does it All Mean?
It has been stated by successful investors, that when financial newspapers start to consistently publish articles on an emerging technology, “it is time to pay attention and take it seriously.” In the last two quarters, this has been true regarding the mainstreaming of tablet computers and their mobile apps and stores.
Whereas, we have rapidly framed the drivers for robust tablet adoption, the more challenging aspects are those within the middle and back offices and the technological certifications needed to define, develop, and deliver the data across evolving telecommunication mediums. This will include:
· Requirements definition and validation,
· Testing harnesses and certification / promotion approaches,
· Modularity and compartmentalization of functionality,
· Data integrity and management,
· Interoperability standards,
· Process interfaces and toolkits,
· Consumer / homeowner privacy and security,
· Integration with legacy systems (e.g., CRM, EIA, LOS, servicing, securitizations), and
· Outsourcing of development and third-party, public / cloud networks.
The aforementioned list is standard operating procedure for traditional solutions and channels, but with the unique interfaces of tablets and their inherent mobility, the implementation aspects are not commonplace nor are their sufficient skills readily available.
A common fallacy of tablets for the mortgage markets is that they have to be bundled with proprietary solutions built on top of commercially available technologies – that is, an app tightly coupled to a platform that is only purchased in their entirely from a single vendor. That 1970’s mindset is counter to the principles of future certified apps available across functionally rich markets. It flies into the frameworks of mainstreaming solutions around SaaS, Cloud, and PaaS, IaaS, DaaS, and others. Stated differently, vendors are looking to lock in lenders in the near term, while capitalizing on the fears of an industry in recovery.
Lenders and brokers should look to vendors and solution providers that promote the iterative adoption and lasting adaptation needed for the evolution of tablets – not repeat the same practices of lock-in that were common in the CRM, LOS, and servicing world leading up the meltdown. Moving the apps are often straightforward – transforming the legacy data is not.
Tablets, when combined with existing offerings, can provide a clear distinction for consumers seeking mobile solutions and cognitive accessibility with a trusted financial provider – their financial provider. The leaders of markets in 2011-2015 will embrace the changes and challenges, while recognizing that time-to-market and historical rules of engagement have been altered.
Without a doubt, tablets are a very promising future real estate and mortgage tie up with consumers. Traditionally, new technologies and associated practices bring efficiency and efficacy to industries seeking a new path and increased profitability. 2011 will be a pivot point to see if the mortgage industry embraces or discounts the tablet and its unique position within its varied channels.