This article also appears at the National MBA at: http://www.mortgagebankers.org/tools/FullStory.aspx?ArticleId=21253
By Mark P. Dangelo
Innovative Relevance®
There is a quiet rebirth taking place across the banking and lending sectors using mass market innovations to reach out to and maintain relationships with the “best” homeowners. Spurred on by a perceived bottoming of real estate prices, supply, and foreclosures, executive suites are once again marshalling their resources to tackle rapidly shifting obligation – and opportunities – using technology.
However, in conforming to historical benchmarks, well over 80% of every new initiative will fail to deliver against three or more anticipated results and published benefit projections (i.e., key performance indicators, KPI’s). Over 60% will be late. More than 50% will exceed budgets by more than 35%. Making matters worse, 45% to 60% of new initiatives will fail to gain consumer or homeowner acceptance, and 60% to 75% will experience service outages and disruptions lasting more than two hours – repeatedly.
Complexity of Measuring Across the Opaque and Unfamiliar
Across the real estate markets, millions in capitalized investments will be written off in 2011 as the cycle-time for technology success becomes shorter and more problematic for delivery teams used to measuring benefits in years — NPV (net present value), IRR (internal rate of return), market share– not in months (i.e., < one year product life-cycle). Nevertheless, to reach changing real estate browsing, buying, and borrowing habits of consumers, new investments must be made using unfamiliar technology to ensure adherence to cross-industry processes and burdensome regulatory compliance.
With a fundamental shift rapidly occurring in computing infrastructures – tablet and smart device versus traditional PC’s – the parameters of software delivery and hardware provisioning have already been permanently altered. Factoring in a number of new touch points – third-party data sources, untrusted Wi-Fi and 3G connectivity options, analytical analysis, external application support – and the familiar cost of ownership projections can double in under half of the time (i.e., utilizing traditional projections of three years).
Real estate innovation has a price especially during times of industry transformation. As identified in 2004, the fifth stage of an industrial revolution is in full force with disposable technology and rapid changes in personal wealth underpinned by global struggles for economic supremacy.
As the executives use emerging innovations to fight for and retain a shrinking consumer base (i.e., consistently under 60% domestic home ownership by 2015), how will investments in technology be made and deemed successful? How can traditional baselines to analyze success be counted on to validate assumptions, predictions, and risks when there is no model to compare against?
Layering, Outsourcing, and Employment Shifts
Moreover, with many banking solutions and lenders rushing to offer housing solutions on thin, mobile tablet computers supported by ranges of cloud computing solutions (i.e., IaaS, PaaS, SaaS), what should the investment model look like?
As RSA, a division of EMC, released last week, aspects of its non-repudiation systems and security offerings had been compromised (e.g., stolen “seed records”) potentially impacting thousands of banking operations and tens of millions of customers. Why is this important? As an example, with outsourcing of technology components more and more common (e.g., layering of solutions to achieve expedited, go-to-market results), the risk profiles associated with ROI attainment must be utilized as discounting factors – not multiplying factors.
Looking forward, assessing the value of sustainable technology provisioning, security, communications connectivity, polar application interfaces, and BCP (business continuity planning) will cause many initiatives to be terminated within just 6 months after deployment.
Additional forward looking factors include personnel and skills, loss and liability projections, media coverage and brand growth, and legacy system cannibalism and runoff. Reinforcing just one of these aspects is that with a record of over 85% of all domestic employees looking to change jobs in the next 18 months, nearly 35% to 50% of their unique operational knowledge will exit with them. For traditional valuation approaches, where is the discounting within the discrete technology investment model?
Lessons learned can be found across prior failed justifications. Just as rumors are surfacing that Microsoft is finally coming to grips with its Zune player, real estate executives are now recognizing that spending innovation capital should only take place where investment models are understood, risk attributed, and treated holistically moving from the consumer through the investment supply chain.
Simply following the competitive crowd or using a one-off prototype or proof-of-concept effort for investment decision making can lead to substantial losses if not properly analyzed and discounted against multi-faceted success criteria.
After all, how many copycat solutions will the housing market support before once celebrated technology solutions are forced to be written off (e.g., smart devices, tablets, data warehousing, CRM)? How many investment failures will be tolerated before staffing changes are mandated as solutions are commoditized?
A Varying Picture
A device that continues to change the information consumption and channel usage is the tablet computer – iPad, Xoom, Slate, and over a hundred more all introduced in the last eight months.
The average cost to develop a one-off real estate application ranges from hundreds of dollars in a week (e.g., programming books, registration with Apple, and an iPad) to hundreds of thousands of dollars spanning months of architectural design, development, certification, and deployment for enterprise application extensions (e.g., LOS, servicing, sales forces, investors, capital markets).
As real estate professionals approach the new frontier of tablet computing for their homeowner prospects, best-practices can be adapted to improve the probability of achieving success. Common ones include:
· Identification of granular success criteria identified across all stages of the product or solution as it evolves (e.g., using ETCD3 for tablet computing, it uses eight taxonomies each with distinct KPI’s, 61 sub-groupings, and 14 behavioral multiplying and discounting attributes).
· Tracking of life-cycle costs (using KPI’s) beyond the one-off approval for initiation linking them to performance criteria at personal, department, divisional, and enterprise levels.
· Utilization of multi-disciplinary approaches to ensure not only delivery, but on-going efficient management (e.g., CMMI, Agile, ITIL, Six Sigma, e-SCM, ISO).
· Determining where measuring (baseline and on-going) takes places – stages, starting points, and durations. Returns will not be accurate if artificially isolated. Costs will be understated if probabilities and assumptions (as discounting factors) are not assessed.
· Utilize third-party models and data to validate assumptions and projections – making sure its use is directly transferable to the initiative. Where applicable, engage outside verifications for those efforts critical to enterprise success or politically volatile.
· Incorporate all benefits and costs into the budget life-cycle. This promotes transparency and lasting accountability.
Historically, investments in technologies surround five common categorizations – revenue, cost, competition, consumers, and risks. Moving forward, these areas will be augmented using aforementioned areas. Justification for technology investment will be multiplied or discounted (or both) to obtain a complete analysis of investment – before, during and after implementation.
Since 2007, the need to become relevant for evolving consumer, regulatory, and product markets is critically important. However, the changing economic situations for the remainder of the decade are forcing new justifications surrounding the adoption of mass market technologies.
Real estate and mortgage professionals will use whatever works to become successful. For enterprises to positively leverage their skills and their market pulse, their technology investment approaches must move beyond traditional IT and emerging cloud principles to ensure business profits.