Archive for the ‘Measurements’ Category

Knitting a Robust Quilt of 21st Century Regulations

Thursday, April 16th, 2009

By Mark P. Dangelo

www.Innovative-Relevance.com

It was the Bible that said it was a “foolish man who built his house on the sand.”  For nearly 75 years, a patchwork of regulatory and oversight foundations flexed against macro financial strains — all the while gradually eroding the substrate holding the footings in place. 

In 2007, the structural underpinnings linking together complex, arcane, and “innovative” financial products reached a structural failure across globally interconnected financial products.  Tens of trillions of dollars have been lost – trillions more to come.  Curious, that the government predictions of potential losses just two years ago is now over 30 times its original estimate – and growing.

The architectonic financial disasters have highlighted the shortcomings of many domestic regulatory / oversight bodies each with a distinct role and mission – OTS, FDIC, Treasury, Federal Reserve, OCC, SEC, FHFA, and FINRA.  Furthermore, there are other influential committees and organizations which also contributed to recent financial events including FASB, ISAB, IMF, and BIS / BASEL.  Finally, there is varying levels of accountability and oversight at the state and local level.  And, this is just a thumbnail of the primary committees, special interest groups, associations, and consumer advocacy demands squaring off against the rebirth of financial and mortgage groups (FMG).

Is it any wonder that those who knew the industry systems were able to find the “gray areas” among the eight decades of cumulative, patchwork guidance and committees?

Do We Really Need More Regulations?

With international, federal, state, and local business rules estimated to be in excess of 16,000 discrete regulations, opponents of increased or “super” regulatory efforts ask, “how much more can we viably sustain?”  Proponents of more regulation point to, and rightfully so, the recent two-year global financial debacle that has significantly damaged U.S. FMG reputations and cost millions of jobs. 

Notwithstanding the polarization discussions, recent unraveling of FMG practices clearly highlights: a) gaps in regulatory coverage and approach, b) too many conflicting and historical rules, c) political opportunists, d) lack of enforcement, e) failure to understand regulatory implications, and f) unfocused and fragmented statutes and g) regulators disassociated with today’s market’s (e.g., product offerings, unassigned risks, interconnected systemic fault lines, system risk of innovative complex instruments).

It is this latter challenge, unfocused and fragmented statutes / regulators, that has negatively influenced the loss of brand name icons during the last 12 months – conservatorship, bankruptcy, acquisition, and on-going “assistance” (including TARP, TALF, TAP).  As the current and former Treasury Secretary have stated, the foundational architecture of regulation and oversight requires significant rebuilding.  However, can nearly 500 elected officials in Washington come together for material revisions or will political expediency and retribution contribute to cosmetic spackling of a condemned structure?

The Truth of the Matter

Many argue and even condemn the performance of the various regulators and their agencies.  But is this really warranted?  The GAO issued a statement on March 18, 2009, “Review of Regulators’ Oversight of Risk Management Systems,” and implied that many weaknesses were proactively identified – but the regulators were unable to knit them effectively together to determine the potential magnitude of the forthcoming situation. 

Yes, we could therefore blame the regulator and demand a “pound of flesh” as some hearings have deemed appropriate.  Yet, we should also ask where were the media hungry analysts and economists who now parade themselves on national cable programs?  Where were the management teams that paved their own road to ruin?  Where were the auditors and “think tanks?”  Where any of these groups less culpable than the others?  Let us not forget Congress and those in elected offices in the various states and municipalities.  Where was their outrage and proactive solutions before the foundational sands eroded away?  Are new regulations really just about the appalling behavior and greed of corporate executives averaging over $8 million a year in total compensation?

So, let’s ask a pertinent question as the pitch forks and clubs are taken out of the closets.  “Would any amount of regulation, outside of FMG advanced nationalization, really have stopped this decay and catastrophic failure from transpiring?”  Did the world governing bodies and agencies, and not just American ones, step up and say anything material before the FMG structures were beyond repair?  Everyone has blame when it comes to regulation, governance, and oversight. 

Likewise, if draconian and socialist regulations are to be avoided, we need to proactively incorporate the solution sets into the on-going operational and risks processes within the enterprises.  Whereas governance and oversight is important, the lack of robust internal controls aligned with risk-adjusted principles cannot be left to chance.  Using an analogy, think TQM (Total Quality Management) for regulatory compliance. 

As we have subtlety acknowledged, regulators and auditors are implicitly chartered in helping assess and promote improvements with statutory guidelines, internal control compliance (e.g., COSO), technologies and best-of-breed adaptation.  But in their defense, what happens if they are deceived, face “budget / engagement” cutbacks, or conspiracy?  Fundamentally, only if organizations accept internalization of statutes and controls ethically (i.e., adhering to the spirit of the regulation and not just the letter of the law), can the investor and public (e.g., moral hazard avoidance, TBTF) trust be regained. 

Pragmatic Next Steps

Creating a new regulatory framework and underlying architecture is hard work.  There are lots of “jurisdictional wars” yet to be fought by those seeking glory and self importance.  Whatever the outcome, simplicity of approach coupled with adaptability of regulatory principles must rule the outcomes. 

Technological solutions and data reuse will be equally important as part of capturing, storing, and purging data at its source.  Discrete metrics used to measure adherence or conformance, will be rolled into cohesive and interlinked analytical dashboards that assess the implications both in forward and reverse along the custody or lifespan of the process and FMG instrument. 

Compartmentalization and reuse of self-contained front and back-office sub-processes (and associated technologies) will yield interoperability benefits that not only meet an administrative duty, but offer competitive, market, and profit advantages previously unrecognized.  Innovation and money will flow to patch a corporate void created by new regulatory alignments and responsibilities – far beyond mere form completion, reporting, or vendor promises. 

While cohesively knitting a fabric of efficient and effective regulations is a multi-year initiative, what is complicating the discussions today are those that “talk past each other,” and the various groups striving to transform financial survival into personal gain.  To achieve new, pragmatic, and adaptable regulations, a top-to-bottom review of roles, responsibilities, coverage, principles, and jurisdiction must be undertaken.  Dogmatic beliefs must and will be put down.

Even as several Congressional committees are all striving to be the “quarterback” of regulatory reform, it is unlikely that any existing group or department is up to the immediate and on-going reformatory challenges.  A new, innovative series of iterative approaches must be adopted. 

So as Congress and the public think retribution, there are far greater challenges that are before the American and International community – 1) a multi-year holistic, comprehensive rework of regulations that will deliver meaningful insight and oversight, 2) adherence to principle driven governance to meet unforeseen “innovations,” 3) promote national economic growth while avoiding protectionist regulations, and 4) the proper assignment of risk and rewards to meet ethical, capitalistic goals.

 

Predictions for 2009

Thursday, January 8th, 2009

 I was asked this week, what I thought would be the most critical issues for consultants, vendors, and outsourcers for 2009.  Here are my bullets (with a great deal of facts behind them).  Contact me if you have any questions.

Organizations, aka clients (e.g., CFO, COO, CAO), are seeking pragmatic and incremental solutions / advice that can be leveraged into longer-term sustainability – they are tired of the siloed vendors, consultants, and outsourcers all pushing their individual agendas.

On-going advice coupled with process and technological sourcing will be the “rule of operations” for firms seeking to profit from the market chaos.  Pure-play origins must yield to radical changes in client and household (i.e., end consumer) “health” during severe recessionary pressures including FS, insurance, healthcare, and telecommunications.

Quantitative delivery techniques and methods must support the new provider offerings across the forward and reverse value chains using repeatable analytics, mining, and disparate data sources for legitimacy / value.

Size is not a guarantee of success – in fact it is a weakness in today’s market.  Moreover, the small and middle sized providers who embrace Globalization 5.0 will be able to not only deliver exceptional value for their clients, but also for themselves – ST and LT.

Knowledge Orchestration (KO, beyond traditional collaboration) is more important for c-levels and their firms in 2009-2011 due to consumer demands, behaviors, and real wealth.  Organizations must adopt – or perish.

Consultants, vendors, and outsourcers must link together to exceed client expectations, while ensuring they themselves are able to survive the deep business model shakeouts that the next year will bring – using orchestration as their expanded collaboration techniques for profit.  Today, each has a unique and different role, and only together can the brightest prosper against tomorrow’s survival demands.

Government, political, social accountability and responsibility will permanently change the “valuation” models and assessments used to define structured arrangements and gain sharing – see w4.

Measuring — Beyond FSI Nuclear Winter

Tuesday, September 30th, 2008

By Mark P. Dangelo

www.Innovative-Relevance.com

Another week has come and gone – more failed institutions, more lost jobs, and more botched policies.  A circus-like atmosphere has been the backdrop to the largest bank failure in American history, as the perverse “fundamentals” of prior operations and judgment underscoring the folly of the industry “acceptable practices.”  What strikes me as very peculiar is what was being measured?  What were the risk-driven “levy stages” and when were they breached?  Did innovation and technology provide a false sense of security, or did we completely miss what was important, their interdependencies, and the complexity of the “real markets?”  It seems the only thing missing was Emperor Nero.  It is past time to move forward with new ideas and leaders.

Since 2004, the ability of our industry specialists to measure and integrate disparate data sources has exponentially increased.  We are able to use highly complex, GUI, web-based software that provides unprecedented analysis of both static, transactional, and summarized databases and repositories.  Our industry has been focused on standards, registration, and storage – all requirements for robust and comprehensive assessments and projections.  Holistically, these process and technical components, if used properly, can lead to decision innovation and market insights previously unattainable.  Super job to the visionaries and technologist who provided these abilities!

However, if we had these disruptive innovations at our fingertips, then why weren’t they telling us of impending value destruction?  Where was the fundamental nexus between business and competitive needs versus operation performance and risks — mentioning just a few of the potential key indicators (e.g., performance, management, and industry)?  Like the financial plans being bantered in Washington, the understanding of the issues and their solutions are neither trivial nor commonplace.  But, unlike some, I decided a picture may be the best method to frame discussions, improve our situation, and make our future environment just a little better.


When I completed the macro model above, it became apparent that the simplistic and siloed world that previously provided noted pundits and vendors with their “claims to fame” were no longer extraordinary or, dare I say, innovatively relevant.  So let’s leave the yelling and screaming to the politicians and see if we can determine where we go from here.  Consequently what is the environment that must be measured and how has it appreciably changed? 

There is no singular prescription or one size that fits all for everyone.  Each must be tailored to the organization and their business model.  Yet, convergence of ideals and practices can be reached if we ask the proper questions allowing a focusing of energy and organizational resources. 

  • Is the mere pontification of measurements and monitoring mechanisms sufficient?  What are the various, multi-level indicators that must be interconnected to promote improved understanding at many, distinct levels?
  • Is the organization able to quickly act upon the measures and associated indictors before the circumstances are unavoidable?  What is the cause-to-effect correlation and significance?  What are the typical false-positives that must be factored out objectively and subjectively?
  • How can the discipline of Knowledge Orchestration benefit the linkage of “old school sources and uses” with new databases and techniques needed for complex interdependencies?  Are there one-time indicators and aggregation demands that can be both historical and proactive?  How will orchestration help with conflicts, divergent standards, multiple dashboards, and multi-dimensional analytics?
  • What are the techniques and methods that must be organizationally internalized to ensure action and adaptability?  What are the key categories that must be measured not just in isolation but in collaboration with various new data sources all with vast degrees of statistical confidence and completeness?
  • How will the investor issued financial instruments (e.g., covered bonds) be managed operationally as these products require a complete linkage of e-assets (e.g., origination, servicing, securitization, market pricing, ratings, et al)?  Who will be responsible for creating these visionary solutions and where will they get the skills needed for assembly and adaptability?
  • With the regulatory oversight pendulum set to swing to the extreme part of the behavioral and psychological continuum, how will singular compliance data sources be integrated?  How can multiple competitive repositories be proactively and efficiently linked to meet local, state, and federal requirements?

And the list above goes on.  As I said earlier, the availability of tools and methods to help organizations have rapidly improved and will continue to expand with new delivery methods and mathematical understanding.  Templates, models and advanced dashboards have been a great assistance since 2000 in providing insight into operational and governance processes.  Now, we must move beyond the singular innovation of common dashboards and BI (business intelligence) solution sets into a more thorough and adaptable series of measurement layers that can aid more than one group at a time.  The innovation is available – we only have to reach out and embrace it.

In closing, as the echoes of thunder reverberate across the sky shaking the ground and its inhabitants to their core.  Industry rain turns into sleet.  Sleet gives way to a blizzard.  The piles of frozen assets and illiquid lubrication for the financial machines have turned off the spigots of funds for both Wall Street and Main Street.  “Financial Nuclear Winter” has demonstrated its cleansing, brutal wrath.  Nevertheless, unlike poetry and the movies, our story doesn’t end here – it is just beginning. 

If we are to believe in our American future and the future of our workforces and jobs, our measurements and the associated monitoring of business and operating practices must be fundamentally different.  We cannot allow the so called industry pundits and leaders of the past to permanently taint our future.  They, like the toxic assets they left, must be jettisoned.  If not, the cold and brutal silence of Nuclear Winter will remain for a long time.