Archive for the ‘Analytics’ Category

Using Compliance as a Spur for Innovation

Tuesday, April 19th, 2011

By Mark P. Dangelo

www.Innovative-Relevance.com

This article also published at the National Mortgage Bankers Association at: http://www.mortgagebankers.org/tools/FullStory.aspx?ArticleId=21965#full

Regulations and oversight have become synonymous with death and taxes across FSI. For many organizations and individuals, compliance with the new Frank-Dodd Act (FDA) — SEC, Federal Reserve, CFTC, Treasury, and FDIC — is a burden and an intrusion against their existing business models and practices.

As evidenced by the positions that, “Dodd-Frank fails to meet test of our times[1],” and “Greenspan is wrong: we can reform finance[2],” it appears that the changes to financial code of conduct and actions are far from concluded.

Yet, as is often the case with sweeping regulatory compliance actions (e.g., SOX), rule adherence can promote silver linings of unintended consequences if properly assessed and implemented (i.e., xBRL, system rationalization, process efficiencies, data standardization, and even risk assignment).

Moreover, with 2011 estimates ranging from no increases for IT to widespread cancelations of discretionary projects to meet compliance requirements, the cost of adhering to FDA will not be zero-sum when addressing the interconnected components (see Figure 1).

Compliance can provide a non-traditional innovation spur to alter organizational behaviors especially within the once rigid back-office practices and processes. A few preliminary, optimistic estimates put the savings after subtracting compliance costs from zero to a net gain of 10% to 15%.

As FSI organizations begin reviewing specific rules from the aforementioned governing agencies across all the interconnected Titles of FDA, there are discrete roadmaps being created to assist organizations seeking to use one-off compliance initiatives (e.g., reporting, governance, and data management) as leverage for broader corporate innovations and greater returns.

Enterprise vs. Department Approaches

As with most regulatory proposals or actions, there is a rush to understand “what it means to me?” What does it do to the IT and business budgets? When do I have to have it? How can conformity be assured and insured? Can it be avoided or mitigated? The last thing many decision makers believe is that compliance mandates can hold any redeeming value for efficiency and innovation.

In a rush to “get it done” the costs of regulatory implementation rise across siloed initiatives – a range of 15% to 45% over centrally controlled compliance program offices. This range is in line with prior norms, but below the massive burdens and audit fees actually incurred under the SOX initiatives (e.g., permanent yearly audit increases from 60% to 390% of pre-SOX spend levels were commonly experienced). When examined from a polar perspective, differences between the two approaches can be understood (see Figure 2).

Within the real estate, housing and mortgage segments, the cost of compliance is viewed as a cost with little or no redeeming benefit to the greater efficiency of the organization or its changing consumer behaviors. If we leave the “good” or “bad” debate to those lobbying for change and focus attention on how to change efficiently (regardless of whether we agree with the regulations or not), differences in approaches can yield essential ROI and CAPEX leverage. Additionally, when considering FASB accounting changes and proposals, the need for tightly integrated compliance changes becomes increasingly important.

Figure 2

Department Approach: For large, intertwined regulatory actions (like FSA), enterprises disperse the Title language and rules into silos of existing operations. Whereas compartmentalization is good for segmentation reuse (like OO), without context and proactive designs, departments; a) recreate substantial portions of data repositories needed for increased reporting, b) fail to capitalize on standards, and c) consume computing resources (internal or cloud) that could be leveraged – avoiding costs, improving transparency, and increasing auditability of the result. One-off departmental approaches are common in organizational cultures with autonomous, decentralized decision making and full P&L accountability.

Enterprise Approach: With the acceptance that risks have not been fully assigned or understood, senior leadership teams have increasingly implemented top-down programs of work aligned to common compliance architectures. Using a cohesive and comprehensive approach, synergies of programs can be designed, while creating a framework for regulatory auditability and reuse. Lessons and best-practices from this approach are found across prior SOX initiatives. Characteristics are integrated programs, common architectures, and leadership goals tied to individual and organizational performance.

As mentioned, there are growing and varied number of summarizations and checklists surrounding Frank-Dodd – Morrison and Foerster, Information Week, PwC, and even the MBA – the challenge is finding which ones have efficacy across the established success parameters aligned to risk tolerances (as indicated in Figure 1).

Best-Practices and Lessons Learned

Increasingly acknowledged, regulations are about yesterday – not tomorrow’s business models, consumers, or marketplace realities. The pendulum of regulatory changes tends to swing to extremes before finding a model that works – or is proven deplorably weak as the world recognized too late shaving off trillions in global wealth in the process. FDA is an example of trying to plan for the “unplanable.”

It is precisely this regulatory engineering necessity (i.e., more regulations, stress testing, safe and soundness) which dictates a tightly-coupled series of sensible innovation approaches reactive to external requirements and pressures. As presented earlier in Figure 1, we can establish a model for compliance innovation best practices encapsulated by program management disciplines. Let’s consider just a few of them:

· Architecture: A series of interconnected blueprints (e.g., retention, reuse, reporting) must be proactively designed to accommodate not only today’s requirements, but anticipation of tomorrow’s practices. It acts as a “filter” for technology innovations and approvals.

· Data: As a baseline for compliance, it represents the most stable and reusable portion of any enterprise compliance program, and one of the best sources of leverage (e.g., warehouses, repositories, and taxonomies).

· Governance: A critical aspect needed for on-going validity and cost management across data, technology, and operational methods necessary for market facing reporting and transparency.

· Infrastructure (technology): Is a by-product of integrated data and architectural building blocks tied to process and governance requirements. It is the least stable of the compliance building blocks.

· Outsourcing: With multiple back-office functions outsourced, changes needed to contractual relationships can increase costs and tensions. However, those relationships set up under gain-sharing arrangements, may yield improved returns over mature captives. Leverage of outsourcing best-practices (honed across multiple clients with similar needs) can shorten lead times, while delivering commonality of architectures and data reusability.

· Reporting and Analytics: This is where many organizations start – and work back into new compliance requirements. However, failure to incorporate feedback as part of a closed-loop approach (i.e., adaptability) can yield false-positive conformance when assessed against risks – resulting in stop-start efforts, rework, and poor returns.

· Risk Management: The goals set for by the spirit and letter of the laws, provide the success criteria for any compliance mandates. The “work-breakdown” of the requirement into practice, demands auditability of the rules and flows to ensure not just initial conformance, but for repeatability, disclosures, and replication.

Additionally, with the incorporation of best-practices and lessons learned from within and across industry segments, compliance innovation can be used to address on-going regulatory inconsistencies and emerging political agendas.

* * * * * * * *

In conclusion, with the final disposition of the GSE’s still under debate, any approach taken to deal with sweeping regulatory compliance such as FDA should be constructed for even more pending changes to the compliance structures.

History has proven time-and-again, the only certainty about regulations for FSI operations is that there will always be more – not less. Today, there are an estimated 20,000 state, federal, and local regulations – up nearly 30% since 2004.

The success of our compliance efforts are more than checking-the-boxes, submitting the data, or passing an audit – due in no small part to changing global wealth and shifting finance “guidance” from Asia. For domestic business to be sustainable, compliance innovation must become a goal of the corporate agenda and a guiding principle for IT budgetary efforts.


[1] “Dodd-Frank Fails to Meet Test of our Times,” Alan Greenspan, Financial Times, March 29, 2011

[2] “Greenspan is Wrong: We Can Reform Finance,” Barney Frank, Financial Times, April 3, 2011

Investments – Moving Beyond IT and the Clouds

Tuesday, March 22nd, 2011

This article also appears at the National MBA at: http://www.mortgagebankers.org/tools/FullStory.aspx?ArticleId=21253

By Mark P. Dangelo

Innovative Relevance®

There is a quiet rebirth taking place across the banking and lending sectors using mass market innovations to reach out to and maintain relationships with the “best” homeowners.  Spurred on by a perceived bottoming of real estate prices, supply, and foreclosures, executive suites are once again marshalling their resources to tackle rapidly shifting obligation – and opportunities – using technology. 

However, in conforming to historical benchmarks, well over 80% of every new initiative will fail to deliver against three or more anticipated results and published benefit projections (i.e., key performance indicators, KPI’s).  Over 60% will be late.  More than 50% will exceed budgets by more than 35%.  Making matters worse, 45% to 60% of new initiatives will fail to gain consumer or homeowner acceptance, and 60% to 75% will experience service outages and disruptions lasting more than two hours – repeatedly. 

Complexity of Measuring Across the Opaque and Unfamiliar

Across the real estate markets, millions in capitalized investments will be written off in 2011 as the cycle-time for technology success becomes shorter and more problematic for delivery teams used to measuring benefits in years — NPV (net present value), IRR (internal rate of return), market share– not in months (i.e., < one year product life-cycle).  Nevertheless, to reach changing real estate browsing, buying, and borrowing habits of consumers, new investments must be made using unfamiliar technology to ensure adherence to cross-industry processes and burdensome regulatory compliance. 

With a fundamental shift rapidly occurring in computing infrastructures – tablet and smart device versus traditional PC’s – the parameters of software delivery and hardware provisioning have already been permanently altered.  Factoring in a number of new touch points – third-party data sources, untrusted  Wi-Fi and 3G connectivity options, analytical analysis, external application support – and the familiar cost of ownership projections can double in under half of the time (i.e., utilizing traditional projections of three years). 

Real estate innovation has a price especially during times of industry transformation.  As identified in 2004, the fifth stage of an industrial revolution is in full force with disposable technology and rapid changes in personal wealth underpinned by global struggles for economic supremacy. 

As the executives use emerging innovations to fight for and retain a shrinking consumer base (i.e., consistently under 60% domestic home ownership by 2015), how will investments in technology be made and deemed successful?  How can traditional baselines to analyze success be counted on to validate assumptions, predictions, and risks when there is no model to compare against?

Layering, Outsourcing, and Employment Shifts

Moreover, with many banking solutions and lenders rushing to offer housing solutions on thin, mobile tablet computers supported by ranges of cloud computing solutions (i.e., IaaS, PaaS, SaaS), what should the investment model look like? 

As RSA, a division of EMC, released last week, aspects of its non-repudiation systems and security offerings had been compromised (e.g., stolen “seed records”) potentially impacting thousands of banking operations and tens of millions of customers.  Why is this important?  As an example, with outsourcing of technology components more and more common (e.g., layering of solutions to achieve expedited, go-to-market results), the risk profiles associated with ROI attainment must be utilized as discounting factors – not multiplying factors.  

Looking forward, assessing the value of sustainable technology provisioning, security, communications connectivity, polar application interfaces, and BCP (business continuity planning) will cause many initiatives to be terminated within just 6 months after deployment. 

Additional forward looking factors include personnel and skills, loss and liability projections, media coverage and brand growth, and legacy system cannibalism and runoff.  Reinforcing just one of these aspects is that with a record of over 85% of all domestic employees looking to change jobs in the next 18 months, nearly 35% to 50% of their unique operational knowledge will exit with them.  For traditional valuation approaches, where is the discounting within the discrete technology investment model? 

Lessons learned can be found across prior failed justifications.  Just as rumors are surfacing that Microsoft is finally coming to grips with its Zune player, real estate executives are now recognizing that spending innovation capital should only take place where investment models are understood, risk attributed, and treated holistically moving from the consumer through the investment supply chain.  

Simply following the competitive crowd or using a one-off prototype or proof-of-concept effort for investment decision making can lead to substantial losses if not properly analyzed and discounted against multi-faceted success criteria. 

After all, how many copycat solutions will the housing market support before once celebrated technology solutions are forced to be written off (e.g., smart devices, tablets, data warehousing, CRM)?  How many investment failures will be tolerated before staffing changes are mandated as solutions are commoditized?  

A Varying Picture

A device that continues to change the information consumption and channel usage is the tablet computer – iPad, Xoom, Slate, and over a hundred more all introduced in the last eight months. 

The average cost to develop a one-off real estate application ranges from hundreds of dollars in a week (e.g., programming books, registration with Apple, and an iPad) to hundreds of thousands of dollars spanning months of architectural design, development, certification, and deployment for enterprise application extensions (e.g., LOS, servicing, sales forces, investors, capital markets). 

As real estate professionals approach the new frontier of tablet computing for their homeowner prospects, best-practices can be adapted to improve the probability of achieving success.  Common ones include:

·         Identification of granular success criteria identified across all stages of the product or solution as it evolves (e.g., using ETCD3 for tablet computing, it uses eight taxonomies each with distinct KPI’s, 61 sub-groupings, and 14 behavioral multiplying and discounting attributes).

·         Tracking of life-cycle costs (using KPI’s) beyond the one-off approval for initiation linking them to performance criteria at personal, department, divisional, and enterprise levels.

·         Utilization of multi-disciplinary approaches to ensure not only delivery, but on-going efficient management (e.g., CMMI, Agile, ITIL, Six Sigma, e-SCM, ISO).

·         Determining where measuring (baseline and on-going) takes places – stages, starting points, and durations.  Returns will not be accurate if artificially isolated.  Costs will be understated if probabilities and assumptions (as discounting factors) are not assessed. 

·         Utilize third-party models and data to validate assumptions and projections – making sure its use is directly transferable to the initiative.  Where applicable, engage outside verifications for those efforts critical to enterprise success or politically volatile. 

·         Incorporate all benefits and costs into the budget life-cycle.  This promotes transparency and lasting accountability.

Historically, investments in technologies surround five common categorizations – revenue, cost, competition, consumers, and risks.  Moving forward, these areas will be augmented using aforementioned areas.  Justification for technology investment will be multiplied or discounted (or both) to obtain a complete analysis of investment – before, during and after implementation. 

Since 2007, the need to become relevant for evolving consumer, regulatory, and product markets is critically important.  However, the changing economic situations for the remainder of the decade are forcing new justifications surrounding the adoption of mass market technologies. 

Real estate and mortgage professionals will use whatever works to become successful.  For enterprises to positively leverage their skills and their market pulse, their technology investment approaches must move beyond traditional IT and emerging cloud principles to ensure business profits. 

 

Channels – “We Have Assumed Control”

Tuesday, February 22nd, 2011

http://www.mortgagebankers.org/tools/FullStory.aspx?ArticleId=20520#full

By Mark P. Dangelo

www.innovative-relevance.com

Recent announcements by Apple and Google on their application requirements and revenue percentages for consumer channels have publishing firms determining their subsequent actions – business models, content dispersion, and yes, legal recourse.

However, what is really at stake, underneath these growing number of announcements is not just revenue, but who really controls the channels and points of contacts for consumers. Who, in the end, influences and manages the consumers’ information, behaviors, credit, products, and services? Has the “i” revolution become a paid, invite-only revolution?

Coming on the heels of FCC net neutrality rulings, it appears those who offer mobility devices have a license to monopolize consumer channels and the devices attached to them via Wi-Fi and 3G/4G. In essence, mobile operators have freedoms to deny or grant access.

When viewed discretely – mobile technology advancements and net neutrality – these events seem unrelated. When taken collectively and in their entirety, it appears that 2011 has quietly ushered in the “Channel Battles.” Or, “how much will it cost you” to stay connected across the matrix of discrete channel types and maturity phases once understood to be free?

As groups and industries awaken to the realities too late, the convergence of market events now starts to represent a case of regulatory obfuscation. As we are now learning, there are “unintended and systemic consequences” far beyond the public demons of “evil bankers.”

Why is this Important?

It would be a mistake to think that net neutrality and vendor determined channel segmentation is only about the traditional fixed transport carriers. After all Apple and Google are not carriers.

With the latest FCC rulings issued, the network providers (e.g., Verizon, AT&T, cable companies, mobile operators, reconstituted RBOC’s) are now contemplating the business benefits on how to slice and dice the networks between “free” and those providers who pay extra for content pull and push (i.e., mobile). Selectivity and certifications now appear to be vehicles to govern channel accessibility.

Making the regulatory guidance less rigid and confusing, are those “traditional” fixed players offering both capabilities (i.e., fixed line and mobile) especially for the “last mile.” The FCC rules are complex – hence the potential for channel segmentation and a demand for mobile revenue sharing arrangements. This brings us back to the new criteria from groups like Apple and Google to require revenue sharing arrangements for their consumers and virtual networks – your customers and your applications.

In short, the idea of an unfettered channel to reach consumers is quickly disappearing regardless of regulatory intent – obscured by proprietary devices, tightly controlled app stores, various definitions and mobility options, and the insertion of multi-level channel brokers who filter information and identities depending on how much is paid.

In today’s globally interconnected societies increasingly dominated by knowledge and social information flows, the advanced consumer channels (and customizable delivery devices) will likely become the most important part of the value proposition for financial services during this decade. It is precisely these growing and wondrous outlets (principally mobile) where the battle for profits and market share will be waged.

As we know, if you control the channel, you control the relationship. And, in case you are wondering, mobile operators and app stores can apparently be as open or closed as they desire — as deciphered from the latest FCC rules. So how will financial services offerings, on-going support, customer information, and after-sale support be delivered in this world – at what cost?

New Wonders, New Players, Unfamiliar Arrangements

With predictions that Apple alone will control in 2011 perhaps over 70% of the emerging tablet markets and 27% to 35% of personal multimedia devices, advocacy groups are starting to cry foul over a perception of channel abuse.

We have seen reactions like this before. In the prior decade, politicians and industry organizations targeted Microsoft, IBM, Oracle, and others – those who formed the backbones of the fixed networks and point-to-point infrastructures of the past. As we go to print with this column, we can already see senior government officials trying to “review” the language within these new, unfamiliar agreements.

However, it is still too early to use the “anti” word (e.g., anti-trust, anti-competitive, et al) in markets and against the new generation of innovation vendors.

Why? These new consumer targeted markets are still undergoing hyper-expansion, while in an embryonic growth stage. Tablet computers are projected to capture 20% to 30% market share in just another two to three years – cannibalizing their success from a very slow growth computer market sized at 350 to 400 million units per year. The opportunity for new players – Samsung, Motorola, LG – in tablets alone threaten to change the channel discussion (as these new devices are rumored to be using Honeycomb, also known as Android 3.0).

But, to believe that rising concerns are about devices ( tablet or smart phone) operating systems would be a blunder. They are not like the PC’s and consumer usage patterns of the past. Technological advancements have created new profiles and accessibility options, which are tightly controlled and delivered via mobile or wireless networks. These new networks that regulations allow to impose restrictions, fee structures, and application certifications go far beyond what has governed electronic data exchanges since Judge Greene issued his ruling in 1982 to break up the old AT&T.

If we accept that the devices are just catalysts to entrench consumer relationships, the full concern of channel access becomes apparent. Organizations that control the information flow and access to data and information can wield new powers and profits that seemed unimportant back in 2007 when the financial crisis began.

Ask yourself, what will it cost in the future to deliver secure, certified financial applications when you have third-party channel brokers involved? Will these same brokers become competitors since they already have access to consumer finances via their app stores? How will their knowledge of buying patterns influence their promotion of existing and future competitors? After all, they have the data. They develop and control the relationships. They set the fees that are charged to consumers and to those seeking access to these growing markets.

It sounds like a model recast from Wall Street where they once controlled the data, created the marketplaces for exchange, had access to the consumers, and made money regardless of investor or corporate positions. Perhaps the exchange consolidations underway around the globe should take note.

* * * * * * * *

The financial services industry is on the cusp of a new perfect storm, which is forming across very unfamiliar markets. The channels are being throttled by events that when taken separately are of only minor irritation. When holistically linked, the threat to channel access becomes very clear.

In a song about 2112, in the end it was said by upstarts who challenged the establishment and overthrew the traditional power brokers, “…we have assumed control …” It appears that the channels of communications are rapidly being controlled – albeit a century early.

As we all know and can witness from very recent worldwide events, those who can control the emerging consumer channels can dominate discussions, actions, politics, and economic outcomes.

For businesses, a failure to address the fundamental shifts already underway will have pervasive and dire consequences against a shrinking homeowner base, rampant oversupply, zealot financial services regulators, and aging domestic populations.

The on-going, caviler approach to third-parties assuming control of the channel should have everyone concerned – especially within financial services. It begs the question, “Is advocacy only needed to deal with a challenge once it has become a problem and a roadblock?” Who is fighting for our future?

If left unchecked during 2011, it is easy to foresee tens of billions in yearly fees being paid to third-party channel providers for access to customers – your customers.

For an industry struggling with recovery, this is the last thing we need.