The Perfect Tempest – “Preparedness Fatigue” is not Acceptable -- November 9, 2006 (Also appearing in the MBA NewsLink)
About a year ago I released a two part series on “The Perfect Tempest – Pandemics, Globalization, Aging Workforces, and Regulatory Pressures.” In these in-depth articles we holistically examined the issues and challenges dealing with risk mitigation and disaster preparedness with our widespread back-office operations and servicing environments. While the latter three (i.e., Globalization, Aging Workforces, and Regulatory Pressures) remain in the headlines, it is a recent update to the Pandemic relationship within Tempest from the WHO (World Health Organization) that has thrust our preparedness challenges back into the spotlight.
First, let’s clearly state that the pandemic sky is not falling and that H5N1 (i.e., Avian or Bird Flu) is not any more or less virulent than last year according to research scientists. Furthermore, these researchers indicate that risk today of human-to-human transmission appears no greater than previously reported. However, there is evidence that a “new” virus has appeared on the Asian continent which is probably a mutation of the previously identified strains. So why is this important you ask? How can this impact my domestic operations and profitability?
There appears to be very early evidence that the drugs being stockpiled to lessen a human outbreak of a “bird flu” pandemic are not as effective or in some cases biologically resistant to these strains. Even though the issue of severity continues to be hotly debated in the scientific community regarding the lethality or severity of the strains (e.g., “reassortment” versus “adaptive mutation”), preparedness experts point out that complacency or fatigue of planning for a human-to-human bird flu outbreak among our workforces cannot become the norm.
Since it sprang to the headlines in 2003, we have all been shocked at the mortality rate associated with the virus – holding steady at around 60%. Whereas the current collective deaths are isolated and small (250+ infected most in the Asian Continent), the ramifications of a more widespread and easily transmitted virus like Avian Flue far exceed the last time we witnessed a global pandemic (claiming 3% to 5% of those afflicted as compared to the fatality rate of H5N1). As a result, preparation and vigilance must be the norm for just such a pandemic coupled with global operations and facilities, aging workforces being more susceptible to illness, and tighter and more punitive regulations that demand conformance.
So what should be done given the levels of uncertainty and evolving research? Using a very simplistic approach, these should include:
- Create a comprehensive assessment of your current operations and global workforce and the process impact created by various scenarios.
- Share this assessment with in-country leaders to incorporate local concerns and limitations while taking advantage of mitigation strategies available within the specific geographic locale.
- Identify international, domestic, and local agencies which can help create strategies for prevention, isolation, and family support for employees and their extended families.
- Develop fully budgeted programs that provide contingency operations, cross-training, remote facility operation or any other sequence of activities that can help contain an outbreak at a facility (while obtaining minimal productivity and production levels).
- Test and train the employees and the extended sourcing chain (including vendors) on proper actions and expectations before the contingency plans are required.
It is prudent to remember that pandemic findings and projections are still rapidly evolving. New data and projections are repeatedly being updated and published due to the scientific advances, strain mutations, and an increase in cross-government data sharing. The mortgage industry will experience “The Perfect Tempest” of globalization, aging workforces, and regulatory pressures potentially brought about by a pandemic catalyst. All three conditions are becoming more acute and as we know it only takes a “spark” for the entire situation to become outside of our control.
Note: valuable sources of current and future information include: World Health Organization, National Academy of Sciences, and Center for Disease Control.
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